Party Payoff

"Call it the Trump Law of Inverse Reactions:" says a story in Axios. "Everything that would seem to hurt the former president only makes him stronger."

But I think that there's a better name for the phenomenon: The Partisan's Dividend.

This is a play on the concept of the Liar's Dividend, which, put simply, is the idea that a person (or organization) can discredit true, and damaging, information by pointing to instances of fakery and then claiming that the information about them is also faked, then taking advantage of the benefit of the doubt on behalf of people who would withhold or withdraw their support were they more certain that the damaging information were accurate.

A Partisan's Dividend works in much the same way. In an environment where there are constant claims that accusations against a politician, their allies and/or supporting organizations are nothing more that politically motivated fabrications, a politician can maintain support in the face of what would otherwise be career-ending accusations or actions. See this article on Republican women's reactions to the verdict in the second E. Jean Carroll vs. Donald J. Trump case in the BBC.

This accusation is only meant to hurt his character in his upcoming run for the 2024 election. This is serious.

To be sure, this isn't the best example, as the person quoted is a committed Republican, as opposed to someone who might go either way, but it illustrates the point. And Donald Trump is unlikely to be the only person who benefits from this effect. Republican efforts to tie President Biden to any misdeeds of his son Hunter are also likely to run into the idea that they're simply attempting to damage an opposing partisan, rather than actually having genuine evidence of wrongdoing on behalf of the President.

And it's likely that, as time goes on, the effect will become stronger, and both parties will have more and more difficulty convincing people who do not already support them that the other side has actually done anything wrong. Which means that it becomes more and more likely that politicians will actually commit crimes and the like, knowing that they can muddy the waters by claiming investigations into their actions are bad-faith partisan attacks.

When partisan loyalty is what brings home the goods, it's rational for people to become more loyal partisans, even if it eventually results in blind loyalty. Which simply makes the voices directed at those who don't give their loyalty even more strident.