Frenemies

For all that the political relationship between the United States and China has become bogged down in the two nations' differing ideas of their own interests, and that the political rhetoric is becoming more more and more acrimonious, it's worth noting that the interests of the two nations have not entirely diverged.

This is a Chinese-flagged bulk/dry cargo carrier picking up a load of grain at a Seattle terminal. An acquaintance of mine, who is something of a free-trade booster, is constantly telling anyone who will listen that trading partners rarely go to war with one another. Honestly, I have no idea how true that is; it comes across as the sort of thing that's true as a technicality, as it seems rational that nations would terminated trade with one another prior to a declaration of hostilities, lest ships be seized and the like.

But still, the sight of a Chinese vessel in Seattle speaks to the idea that, at least for now, the two nations haven't decided that it's not worth having anything to do with the other. We'll see how long that lasts, given the mutual distrust that colors the domestic politics on both sides of the Pacific.

As I am with people, I am always skeptical of the idea that nation-states have principles. Rather, they have interests. And it's pretty clear that the interests of the United States and China are on a collision course. Whether it's simple "great power rivalry" or differing understandings of the sovereignty of the Republic of China, the United States and the People's Republic of China have differing ideas of both how the world should be, and how the world would be were it not for the actions of the other.

Recently, celebrity investor Warren Buffet noted that: "It's imperative that both [the United States] and China understand what the game is and both can't push too hard, but both can prosper." Which makes sense. But it relies upon the idea that each nation can benefit when the other does better for itself. And I'm not so sure about that. Here in the United States, anti-China sentiment is picking up. According to a new study out recently, only 22% of Asian Americans feel that they belong in the United States. Not that they're alone in this, given that the numbers for Black and Hispanic Americans were only 24% and 25%, respectively. Personally, I suspect a political system that continuously tells people that they're at constant risk of abject poverty in order to motivate people to vote. But it could be any number of things.

Whatever the reason, the United States seems to be settling into the idea that China is the new Evil Empire and China seems to have cast the United States in that same role. Which is unfortunate. Combined with a lack of understanding of how the other sees the world, the citizens of both nations my wind up going along with (if not actively pushing) their governments in a move towards an open conflict which is likely to benefit neither side in the long run.