Monday, June 12, 2023

Unstated

A White House National Security Council spokesperson referred Axios to the Israeli government. The spokesperson added that the U.S. "has been clear that advancing settlements is an obstacle to peace and the achievement of a two-state solution."
Scoop: Israel to announce plans for thousands of new settlement units in West Bank
I'm not sure why anyone thinks that the current Israeli government is the least bit interested in a "two-state solution," given that they see no benefit Palestine being a nation-state. It's been made clear on multiple occasions that Israel sees the Palestinians as hostile to their continued existence, and isn't in favor of their having a self-governing and self-reliant country, since, in order for it to be able to defend itself, it would also be capable of fighting with Israel.

Given that Israel is already a formal nation-state, with international recognition, and no-one really prepared to go to mat in order to preserve the status quo, complaining that Israel's actions make things more difficult seems to be a waste of time. Israel is acting in what it understands its interests to be, and it's been pretty clear for some time now that there are enough people in the country who want to annex the whole of the West Bank (and possibly even Gaza), or will simply stand by as it happens, that international hand-wringing is not going to make a difference.

Israel's domestic politics favors the expansion of settlements. And while there are any number of people, organizations or even nations that would rather they didn't, no-one is really placed to do anything about it, because there aren't large or vocal enough constituencies for genuine pushback. Diplomacy requires that both sides understand it to be their best option, and that simply isn't the case for Israel at this point. They understand their best option to be pushing ahead with settlements, and weathering whatever unrest this causes, because it's worked for them in the past. And it's doubtful that things have changed enough that it won't work now.

International diplomacy has acquired an air of "Stop! Or I'll shout 'Stop!' again" and "strongly-worded letters," to the point where it's rational to not take it seriously. Israel understands that no-one is going to stand up for the Palestinians in a way that changes the calculus of further construction in the West Bank. And I'm sure that most other interested parties have that understanding. It doesn't make sense to pretend otherwise.

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