What Do We Want?

There's been a lot of back-and-forth over whether or not the widespread adoption of generative automation is going to usher in a new golden age or simply detonate the employment market. What tends to be left out of these discussions, at least as I encounter them, is any mention of aggregate demand. And that seems like an oversight, because the question at hand can usually be boiled down to "How much demand will new automation technologies create (or destroy) and how much of it will it be able to meet itself?"

Because the problem isn't automation per se... it's the fact that there isn't pent-up demand for human labor waiting to take up all of the slack in the labor market. And while people predict that demand is coming, no one has any idea when it might happen, considering that people are still saying "automation could create new jobs people haven't even thought of yet." I think that part of the problem is that new occupations are seen as purely emergent phenomena that simply come along at random one day, so there's no point in attempting to actively bring them about. Which may be true, but new occupations come along to meet new needs. And while some things will always be a surprise, it's possible to predict certain needs a few years or so in advance. This is, after all, how the Bureau of Labor Statistics puts together its "Fastest Growing Occupations" list. In other words, the fact that people may be unable to design the future they want isn't a reason to not be attempting to get out in front of it.

The problem with both the doom-and-gloom and techno-optimist camps is that their outlooks tend to be passive; either there's nothing to be done, or a solution will magically appear where it's least expected. Even the people who are talking up (or selling) ways for people to future-proof themselves against a more automated future are dealing in individual preparation for an inevitable outcome.

But human history is created by, well, people. As a species, we're the ones driving, rather than simply being along for the ride. There's no need to be resigned to a "wait, and see what develops" mindset. But it's going to take some doing. But the difficult thing about it is that it's going to take working together in a situation where the temptation to do better for oneself by jumping ship is going to be high.