Friday, July 14, 2023

Erosion

The actors are joining writers who walked out in May, concerned about pay, working conditions and the industry's use of artificial intelligence (AI).
SAG strike: Actors join writers on Hollywood picket lines
I suspect that if the actors' concerns about the use of artificial intelligence tools to replace them in the future are founded, their days are already numbered. The question then becomes if they can make the studios go down with them.

Because it's one thing to force the "motion picture industry" as it exists now to agree to avoid replacing actors with technology. It's going to be another thing entirely to make the aspiring moviemakers of the future go along. I am reminded of the web series "Red Versus Blue" which was made within various incarnations of the Halo video games. The fledgling filmmakers at Rooster Teeth recorded their own voice lines, but all of the visuals came from the in-game rendering engine. It may not be long before anyone with access to good text-to-speech tools will be able to effectively make a passable radio play on their own. And even today's tools, which don't really qualify for the label "artificial intelligence" any more than the software on ones PC does, can do enough heavy lifting that a single person could crank out enough text for a 90-minute production in fairly short order. If it comes to pass that tools capable of rendering close enough to photorealistic video become available to everyday (if perhaps somewhat more affluent than the norm) people, people are going to experiment with making short films, then something long enough for a television episode, then feature-length, themselves.

Early efforts will likely be laughably bad, made by creators too invested to be able to see that their baby is ugly. But they'll get better. Once upon a time, it took entire studios to make animated short films. That's no longer the case. If that change comes for feature-length movies, such that a small group, or even an individual, can make something that's "good enough," the Screen Actors' Guild may be able to slow the tide, or make a bit more money from it, but they won't be able to stop it. If it comes in, it's going to wash them away. They may be fighting simply to enjoy the beach while it lasts.

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